Donald Trump’s first term as president brought sweeping change to environmental regulations, trade policy and a host of issues that impact America’s agriculture sector. After winning his return bid on Tuesday, Trump’s second term is likely to once again have a sizable impact on the nation’s farms and ranches.
Here are four ways Trump’s next four years as president could impact the agriculture industry.
Trump may reject sustainable food movement in response to climate change
President Joe Biden’s administration spent billions on agriculture practices meant to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, but some environmentalists worry Trump will reverse those investments.
“There’s a possibility that $19 billion of historic generational climate investments in agriculture could be completely lost,” said Ranjani Prabhakar, the legislative director of healthy communities for Earthjustice, a nonprofit environmental law center.
The nation’s agriculture sector accounted for 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data. The agency cites cattle production, rice crops and the application of chemical fertilizers as major sources of climate pollution.
During his first term, Trump reversed more than 100 climate and environmentally-focused rules that originated under former president Barack Obama’s administration. Under Trump, the USDA also stopped publishing government studies that mentioned climate change, according to a 2019 Politico investigation. He also pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Project 2025, the roadmap for a second term created by many Trump supporters and advisors, outlines that, under Trump, the USDA should remove the country from any “schemes” to produce sustainable food or provide funding for climate-smart practices for producers.
“From the outset, the next Administration should: Denounce efforts to place ancillary issues like climate change ahead of food productivity and affordability when it comes to agriculture,” the document states.
Read more about Trump’s possible impact on climate regulations.
Trump’s push for ‘mass deportation’ could harm farm labor
During his campaign, Trump promised to deport upwards of 20 million undocumented people, many of them agricultural workers who perform the dangerous jobs most Americans don’t want. Trump’s close allies have recently proposed eliminating the H-2A program, which farmers said is necessary to fill labor shortages.
In an interview with The New York Times, Stephen Miller, who led Trump’s immigration efforts during his first term, said Trump's goal was to upend industries that rely on immigrant labor.
“Mass deportation will be a labor-market disruption celebrated by American workers, who will now be offered higher wages with better benefits to fill these jobs,” he said.
Some research suggests deportations, especially at a large scale, could backfire on U.S. workers. In 2023, University of Colorado researchers estimated that, for every 1 million unauthorized workers deported, 88,000 native workers would lose jobs. When companies lose their labor forces, the researchers concluded, they find ways to use less labor, not replace their lost workers.
A historical example is the end of the Bracero Program, which allowed Mexican workers into the U.S. for seasonal jobs. Instead of hiring more U.S. workers when their labor force was suddenly gone, farmers turned to heavy machinery, according to 2017 research. There was no corresponding increase in employment or wages for native workers.