Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is the top choice for Iowa donors as he competes in the Iowa caucuses for the second time.   

Sanders has nearly 7,000 Iowans donating over $475,000 so far this cycle, topping his Democratic primary competitors.

Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg came in second with $329,418 raised in Iowa, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) with $225,508. Former Vice President Joe Biden came in fourth with $207,071 Iowa contributions. Sen Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) received $120,266 from Iowa donors.

Sanders’ stronghold on Iowa counties continued since the 2016 caucuses. Donors in Polk County — Iowa’s most populous, which includes urban Des Moines areas and the surrounding suburbs — contributed the most to Sanders and Buttigiegs’ campaign for president, fourth-quarter FEC filings show. They both raised $99,000 in Polk County, Sanders’ with over 1,400 donors and Buttigieg with over 1,000.

Sanders is also leading in donations from the college counties where the University of Iowa and Iowa State University are located. Iowa donors in Johnson and Story counties gave to Sanders over other candidates, raising over $97,000 for his campaign. Those college counties also voted for Sanders during the 2016 caucuses. Following Sanders in the two college counties, Buttigieg raised more than $74,000 while Warren collected just under $60,000.

In the same counties, Biden only received monetary support from less than 300 donors with under $26,000.

The final FiveThirtyEight forecast predicts Sanders and Biden to be roughly tied in the lead ahead of the Iowa caucuses. Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar are projected to gain fewer delegates on the district-level than Sanders and Biden.

Buttigieg and Biden spent more time than their competitors campaigning in rural western Iowa, however, Sanders still leads in donations in those counties. Buttigieg’s campaign raised just under $4,000 in Pottawattamie and Woodbury counties, while Biden raised a little more than $3,000. 

Even with Sanders in Washington for the impeachment trial, he remains at the top of the pack with the most donors and money in the biggest counties in Western Iowa such as Woodbury and Pottawatamie counties. In these areas, donors raised $6,000 for the familiar progressive candidate.

Outside the Democratic caucus, President Donald Trump trails Sanders and Buttigieg in money from Iowans — almost $283,000. Trump held a “Keep America Great” campaign rally last week in Des Moines, where he warned that Iowa farms would be “going to hell” if he was not reelected. This was the first time Trump visited Des Moines since 2016. 

In 2016, the GOP ticket performed exceptionally well in the nation’s first caucus state. Of the state’s 99 counties, 31 that supported former President Barack Obama flipped to Trump, according to POLITICO.

Although Trump gained support in Clinton, Des Moines and Muscatine counties in 2016, Sanders raised the most among all candidates from donors in these counties with almost $14,000. 

Candidates including Buttigieg and businessman Andrew Yang also targeted Obama-to-Trump counties including Carroll in west-central Iowa and Chicksaw counties in northwestern Iowa. 

The final Monmouth University Poll indicates nearly half of likely caucus-goers are open to changing their minds when they are at the caucuses Monday night. Biden (23 percent), Sanders (21 percent), Buttigieg (16 percent) and Warren (15 percent) remain to be top choices for likely caucus-goers in that poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. 

About a quarter of Biden and Buttigieg’s Iowa donors also gave to other active Democratic candidates in 2019 and one-third of Warren’s Iowa donors gave to other active Democratic candidates. 

Sanders has the lowest proportion of shared Iowan donors — 16 percent –– who gave to other active Democratic candidates. Sanders’ donors typically only support Sanders, but when they do stray to other candidates, Warren is their first choice. 
For the first time, the state Democratic Party will release three metrics calculated during the caucuses instead of simply the winners. Along with state delegate equivalents, the raw votes from the first and final alignments will also be released Monday night. Outlets like POLITICO and The Associated Press will report a winner based on the votes of state delegates.

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