Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on goods imported from China would have a “damaging effect with permanent consequences” on U.S. soybean growers and lead to increased deforestation in South America, according to an October 2024 study commissioned by the American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association. 

Soy and corn are the top two export commodities from the U.S. Together, they account for a quarter of total U.S. agricultural export value, and for the past 15 years, China has purchased the largest share of soybeans. 

The study states that South America would step in to fill the need in the commodities market. The U.S.’s largest soybean competitor, Brazil, would achieve this by clearing vast expanses of rainforest and grasslands to expand agricultural land for soy, which will lead to significant loss of biodiversity and the continued loss of one of the world’s largest carbon sinks. 

The study found that while it’s possible to divert exports to other nations, there is not enough demand from the rest of the world to offset the loss of China as the country’s largest buyer. 

​​During Trump’s 2018 trade war, the export of U.S. produced agricultural and food products to China significantly declined, including soybeans, due to retaliatory tariffs imposed by the trading partner. U.S. agricultural exports suffered $27 billion in losses between 2018 through the end of 2019. China accounted for about 95% of the value lost. 

The study warns that it would be extremely difficult for American growers to reclaim the soybean market share in the future if Trump fulfills his promise to start another trade war.

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